House Price Predictions

House predictions to summer 2011


Ray Boulger, John Charcol: "Very little change"

Bernard Clarke, CML: No prediction

Jonathan Davis, financial adviser: "Prices will fall"

Martin Ellis, Halifax: "Little change"

Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide: "Small falls"

Simon Rubinsohn, Rics: "Not a lot of difference"

Ed Stansfield, Capital Economics: "Down about 10%"

House Prices Falling

After a few days when of being a bit less worried about the future, the first thing that I heard when I switched on the radio yesterday morning was that the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) are expecting house prices to fall. Although most surveyors had seen no change in the past three months those seeing a decline in prices outnumbered those reporting a rise.

Despite all the recent talk about house prices already beginning to fall I was surprised that it was the first time since last July that the monthly survey has detected a downturn.

The most worrying thing is that the RICS survey is usually a good indicator of the way thing are going.

On the plus side the survey was only of 242 opinions and of those 64% had seen no change in prices in the past 3 months, so in actual fact perhaps the headline should have been "Most RICS Report Stable House Prices".

Not a great start to a Monday morning.

House Prices Rise - Halifax

According to the Halifax house prices rose by 0.6% in July. This is in contrast to Nationwide who reckoned that prices had fallen by 0.5%. That is odd because Halifax usually declare lower than Nationwide. It is all very confusing, you just don't know who to believe.

Despite prices rising by 0.6% Halifax say that the annual rise is down to 4.9%. Nationwide on the other hand reckon that annual house price inflation stands at 6.6%.

Halifax predict house prices are steadying rather than falling sharply. "The Halifax figures confirm that what we are seeing is a stabilisation in the property market rather than, as some have suggested, the beginnings of a sharp correction," said David Smith of property consultancy Carter Jonas.

July 2010

After June`s optimism July takes a downturn.

I read a report that says that house prices are expected to fall because more people are wanting to sell than buy. This is because of the effect that the Tories are having on people`s confidence and also the abolition of HIPs is making it easier to be a seller. But surely most of those people who sell will then become buyers?

I become further worried and depressed when I see BBC programme that says that interest rates will begin to rise sooner rather than later and that we should expect rates to be around 6% as that is the norm. 6% would definetely blow us out of the water and we would probably lose both houses. This is very worrying indeed.

Some good news combined with some bad news. A large accountancy firm predicts that because of the Tory deficit plans, interest rates will need to stay at 0.5% until 2014. 0.5% will become the norm. This is great news but the report also predicts that house prices will fall by nearly 25% over the next 3 years. That would be a disaster for me and my family but I  don't see how anybody can predict such a big movement, it must be guess work.

Its official, according to the Nationwide house prices have fallen by 0.5% in July. Is this the beginning of a big slide? Should I start to panic now? Should we be thinking about selling our second property while we still can?

I am torn between trying to relax and take things as they come but risk being too complacent or constant worrying which seems to be a by-product of monitoring the situation closely.

April 2010

The Nationwide are still saying that house prices are creeping up. This is some comfort but I am still thinking about our rented property which appears to have fallen in value.