Wednesday 25 August 2010

Interest Rates Could Reach 8% Next Year

The warning comes from the Policy Exchange, whose chief economist, Andrew Lilico, argues an economic recovery will unleash a wave of money which will lead to rampant inflation unless interest rates rise to prevent it happening.

He believes that the Bank of England has quadrupled the monetary base and once the economy starts growing properly again, lending will expand and there will then be "too much money chasing too few goods". I have heard this view before, in January people were predicting much higher interest rates by the end of this year because of quantative easing but there is little sign of it happening so far.

The Bank of England is a calming voice, Mervyn King has said that he is not overly concerned about price rises, even though they are rising at more than 3% a year, above the 2% target. He said he has been "surprised" by the recent strength of inflation, but added the factors pushing prices higher were temporary.

My opinion is that these so called experts love to grab the headlines when there are few other news stories around during he summer holidays.

One think tank reckons the base rate will stay low till 2014 and another says it will go up to 8% next year. Its a joke. If you locked a handful of economists in a room and said they could come out once they had reached a unanimous verdict they would starve to death!

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